From a young core to a top defense to being underestimated, the Thunder s road to championship is similar to the 15 Warriors

The Thunder made its first NBA Finals since 2012 after eliminating the Minnesota Timberwolves 124-94 in Game 5 Thursday morning. The Thunder will play against the Indiana Pacers (3-1 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals) or the New York Knicks in the Finals, striving to be the first championship in the team's history.

The Thunder are the absolute favorites for the NBA championship (the odds of winning are as high as -575), but we should emphasize that this is not a foregone conclusion. The Pacers — assuming they ended up knocking out the Knicks — are playing very well right now.

But when watching the Thunder's performance so far this season, it is impossible to ignore the shadow of the Golden State Warriors in the 2014-15 season. The Warriors, led by Stephen Curry, won their first Western Conference Final on May 28, 2015 — a full decade and one day ahead of the Thunder’s victory on Thursday morning.

But these two teams not only give people a similar feeling in some aspects, such as their leapfrog journey into the championship ranks, the process of independently cultivating talented players, or they are not only playing for each other, but also the fun brought by the team's struggle. Their lineup and future team building model are almost mirrors of each other. Let's take a look.

The most obvious commonality between the Thunder and the Warriors this year is that there is a player who is elected as the MVP for the first time. For the Thunder, it was Shea Gilgers Alexander, 26 years old, two years after he was selected for the All-Star for the first time. For the Warriors, it was Stephen Curry, who was 26 years old at the time, and it was two years since he was selected for the All-Star for the first time.

Alexander has the opportunity to make history👀

He has the opportunity to be the first MVP to win the NBA Finals since Stephen Curry in 2014-15😯

—Sports Center

Alexander and Curry rely on different forms of dominance. Alexander is the best breaker in the league; Curry is the best shooter in the league. Alexander has become an excellent enough shooter to prevent the defender from taking it lightly; Curry has achieved the same effect through his breakthrough. It all boils down to the same thing: a point guard who is almost unstoppable and score-first, facilitates all teammates’ offense with his huge personal offensive threat and the gravity it generates.

Data Comparison

Shay Gilgers Alexander in 2025, averaging 32.7 points

Real hit rate: 63.7%

PER value: 30.7

Positive and negative value: +12.1

Stephen Curry in 2015, averaging 23.8 points

Real hit rate: 63.8%

PER value: 28.0

Positive and negative value: +11.8

In almost all traditional and high-order data, Alexander is better than Curry, with the original score being the most outstanding. Curry didn't become a player who could average at least 30 points per game until the following season. Does this mean that Alexander is better this year than Curry in the 2014-15 season? This is certainly worth discussing. But the point is that both players have followed a similar path to development: they won their first MVP at the age of 26 and were already making their mark two years before they were awarded. In addition to getting his first MVP, Curry also got his first championship trophy. Alexander is only four wins away from replicating Curry's achievements.

Top defense

The Thunder's dominance is based on its defense. The same is true for the Warriors in the 2014-15 season, and although they are better known or at least more praised for the offense led by the Splash Brothers, their defensive efficiency ranks first in the league.

The Thunder's offense is at the top three in the league, but it is not as gorgeous as the Warriors back then, so it may be easier to highlight its advantages in top defense. But the Thunder are generally the same as the Warriors, first of all, they have a group of wingers who are 6-foot-5 (about 1.96 meters) to 6-foot-8 (about 2.03 meters) tall, and they are able to put wave after wave of pressure on the ball holder and have the ability to make unlimited switches with and without the ball. The destructive power of this pressure is obvious - the Thunder can make 17.0 turnovers per game, while the Warriors can make 16.2.

For the Warriors, this group includes Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Clay Thompson, Harrison Barnes and Sean Livingston. For the Thunder, it is Lü Dortmund, Jaylen Williams, Alex Caruso, Alexander, Carson Wallace and Aaron Wiggins.

What is another common point? After all this outside depth, the Thunder and the Warriors have (or once) elite rim guards in the interior - Chet Homgren of the Thunder, and Isaiah Haltenstein, a slightly inferior one, and Andrew Bogut of the Warriors (did you forget him?).

Defensive efficiency

2024-25 Thunders Defensive efficiency: 107.4 (League No.1)

Average defensive efficiency: 114.8

2014-15 Warriors Defensive efficiency: 100.4 (League No.1)

Average defensive efficiency: 105.8

Considering the game rhythm and overall score increase, you can see that the Thunders' defense is actually better than the league average (Thunder +7.4, Warriors +5.3), but the point is that defensive dominance is the core of these two teams in terms of characteristics and effects. In fact, the Thunder are becoming the first team to win the championship with the No. 1 defense in the league since the Warriors in 2014-15.

Second All-Star

Around Curry and Alexander, both teams are looking for the appearance of the second All-Star player. The Warriors selected Klay Thompson with the 11th pick in 2011. The Thunder selected Jaylen Williams with the 12th pick in 2022. It's no coincidence that the Warriors' first overall championship matched Thompson's first All-Star selection in 2015. And if the Thunder finally accomplishes this feat, it will also happen the year when Williams first became an All-Star.

wing partner

Jaylen Williams in the 2024-25 season averaged 21.6 points

Real hit rate: 57.3%

PER value: 20.3

Klay Thompson in the 2014-15 season averaged 21.7 points

Real hit rate: 59.1%

PER value: 20.8

Yes, both players were lottery picks, so it is hard to say that their election as an All-Star was completely unexpected, but both of them were regarded as players with uncertain prospects at the time. So it is not a foregone conclusion to be selected as an All-Star. But their rapid development as star players on both offense and defense has consolidated and accelerated the timeline for the Warriors and Thunder.

Hidden treasure

For many such teams that rely mainly on independent training to compete for the championship, one thing in common is the outbreak of low-couples that no one expected. The Warriors selected Draymond Green with the 35th pick and stumbled upon their hidden gem. The Thunder explored more deeply and found Lü Dott, who was just a undraft before signing the G League contract with the Thunder in 2019.

Green later became the best defender of his generation. Although Dortmund hasn't reached that level yet, he is already one of the best outside defenders in the league. Both are the kind of "sweeping money" that will eventually support the champion team in terms of salary. Green was selected for the All-Defensive Team for the first time in 2015, and the Warriors won the championship of that year. Dortmund has done the same thing this season. The Indiana Pacers or the New York Knicks are still a roadblock, but so far everything is moving in a favorable direction for the Thunder.

Team: The Warriors in 2015 were elected MVP: Stephen Curry

First All-Star: Klay Thompson

First All-Star: Draymond Green

First All-Star: The Thunder

First Election MVP: Shea Gilgers Alexander

First All-Star: Jay Williams

First All-Star: Lu Dott

First All-Star: ? The core lineup of 26 and under 2015 is so exciting because of its younger roster and the opportunity to turn one championship into multiple titles. For the Warriors, the three main scorers are also the three best players in the team, all at 26 or under (Curry, Thompson and Green). The same is true for the Thunder, as does Alexander, Williams and Homegren. The Warriors were able to introduce Kevin Durant in 2016 in part because Thompson and Green were still executing rookie contracts at the time (and Curry's contract was one of the most favorable contracts in sports history). And the Thunder have the ability — mainly with its continuous draft capital — to introduce a star player to the current team, as long as this is reasonable in terms of lineup fit and future prospects.

No matter what, this is not a one-time situation. Whether the Thunder will eventually win this championship or whether they will bring in another important player, with core cohesion supplemented by cheap rookie contracts (using all those picks), they paved the way for long-term top-notch competitiveness, just like the Warriors back then.

Playoff promotion road

Both teams swept their opponents in the first round of the series: the Warriors defeated the New Orleans Pelicans and the Thunder defeated the Memphis Grizzlies.

Both teams won the division final in five games: the Warriors beat the Houston Rockets and the Thunder beat the Minnesota Timberwolves. The most difficult series between the two teams before the Finals appeared in the second round: the Warriors were behind the Grizzlies 1-2, and then they chased and finally won the sixth game. The Thunder eliminated the Denver Nuggets through the tiebreak battle.

The Warriors in 2015 and the Thunder in 2025 are extremely similar teams, and they both became the top teams in the league in the same rapid way. Volkswagen wasn't ready to accept how great the Warriors were, always evaluating them with lazy qualifiers such as "too young" and "not ready" until the Warriors held the trophy high (even so, they tried to say that the Warriors were lucky to win the championship by their opponents being injured). Although the doubts about the Thunder are not that loud, they have been around the whole season. Sports talk shows have been filled with discussions of “Are they ready?” and, in general, there is a wait-and-see attitude that seems more inclined to classify the Thunder with all other good teams in the West, believing that the West is a “competitive openness” situation.

Competition has never been as open as people would have hoped. Indeed, the league is now characterized by its balance of strength, but this balance exists between the teams behind the Thunder. Throughout the season, the Thunder are one level above all other teams in the West. Whether it's against the Pacers or the Knicks, the only thing to prove is that the Thunder have always been the best team in the league, and this requires a Finals victory to prove it.

However, it is already easy to predict that even if the Thunder really wins the championship, there will be discussions about whether they are a little lucky. It would be stupid, but despite this, you can bet people will talk about how Ja Morant was injured in the first round, the Thunder did not have to face the Warriors because Stephen Curry was injured, the Boston Celtics were exhausted, the Thunder were not facing the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers but the Pacers or the Knicks. You can already see the saying that “the schedule is in their favor” is emerging. The same thing happened to the Warriors, who—perhaps because people think that their opinion that the Warriors are not as good as advertised” was correct—were underestimated by a considerable number of loud voices as a "lucky champion", a champion who has benefited from a major injury to his opponent throughout the playoffs. This is also an important reason why the Warriors scored an NBA record 73 wins in the next 2015-16 season, because all the remarks about their first championship were somewhat lucky to rekindle their fighting spirit.

If the Thunder eventually wins this championship, and there is a market for this "good luck" statement, it will be very interesting to see how they will perform next season. Because, again, this team, like the Warriors in 2015, has laid the foundation for success in years to come.

Author: Brad Botkin

Translator: GWayNe